Electric car sales growth looks solid and predictable towards the middle of the next decade, but projections past 2025 are more dangerous, threatened by possible changes in government regulation and the possibility of blindsiding new technology.
The future of diesel in Europe looks bleak for private cars, although the commercial sector has plenty of life in it, according to Delphi Technologies Chief Technology Officer Mary Gustanski in an interview. There might be some life yet in fuel cells.
Delphi Technologies Plc, which provides advanced propulsion systems to global vehicle makers, was spun off from Delphi at the end of last year and is now quoted on the New York Stock Exchange and headquartered in London.
Electric car sales have been steadily growing and will be accelerating seriously towards the middle of the next decade, although predictions of actual outcomes vary widely. Many consumers remain to be convinced that an electric vehicle, often twice as expensive as a similarly sized traditional internal combustion powered one, is worth buying. Anxiety about range, insufficient charging networks, battery longevity and trade in values crimp demand, which is often only there at all because of big government subsidies. Some critics say if you examine the life-time CO2 emissions from making, using and disposing of electric cars, they aren't so very different from traditional fossil fuel powered vehicles, and wonder if this whole movement to protect the planet from the traditional car is worth all the expense.
Nevertheless the global auto industry is falling over itself to provide battery only and gasoline electric hybrids. Last week John Hoffecker, global vice chairman at AlixPartners, said billions of dollars may be wasted.
“A pile-up of epic proportions awaits this industry as hundreds of players are spending hundreds of billions of dollars on electric and autonomous technologies as they rush to stake a claim on the biggest change to hit this industry in a hundred years. The winners in this free-for-all will be those who have the right strategies and, equally important, execute on those strategies to their fullest potential—as billions will be lost by many,” Hoffecker said.
Meanwhile ambitious, or foolhardy, Volkswagen has said 25% of its sales will be all-electric by 2025. BMW reckons between 15 and 25% of its sales by 2025 will be electric (BEV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). Mercedes’ ambitions mirror this. VW and its brands like Porsche, Audi and Bentley has allocated more than $38 billion for BEVs, autonomous cars and mobility services by 2022.
But according to forecasts late last year by IHS Markit, combined BEV and plug-in hybrid electric (PHEV) sales will only reach 15% of the big three markets of the North America, Europe and China market by 2025, constrained by cell supply chain, infrastructure and, in the case of the U.S., the prospect of a long term low fuel price and a liking for large SUVs. IHS Market said combined BEV and PHEV sales currently amount to under 2% of those 3 markets, will rise to 7% by 2020, 15% by 2025 and over 25% by 2030.
0 Comments